Joel Thomas vs Victor Valenzuela
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-1-0Record14-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Warrior CampTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1638
If they lose-24→ 1590
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1491 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joel ThomasVictor Valenzuela
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Victor Valenzuela51%
Joel Thomas 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Victor Valenzuela a 51% favorite over Joel Thomas in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joel Thomas's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1613), separated by just 1 points.
Joel Thomas enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Victor Valenzuela enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Joel Thomas finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Victor Valenzuela 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.