Joelson Nascimento vs Tommy Brunning
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Tommy Brunning65%
Joelson Nascimento 35%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tommy Brunning a 65% favorite over Joelson Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1488 vs 1490), separated by just 2 points.
Joelson Nascimento finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Tommy Brunning 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
14-10-0Record3-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'6"
TBDReach-
145 lbsWeight136 lbs
Maquininha do Futuro· 1607 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTeam Sure Grip
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1504
If they lose-16→ 1472
If they win+24→ 1514
If they lose-24→ 1466
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joelson NascimentoTommy Brunning