John Howard vs Matt Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-19-1Record24-19-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height6'0"
40,0"Reach75"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Wai Kru MMATeamImmortal Fight Team
What's at stake
Matt Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — John Howard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1620
If they lose-11→ 1596
If they win+11→ 1635
If they lose-13→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John HowardMatt Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Brown53%
John Howard 47%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Brown a 53% favorite over John Howard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Matt Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1624 to 1607, a 17-point edge.
John Howard enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
John Howard finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Matt Brown 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.