John Nguyen vs Josh Kwiatkowski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-6-0Record11-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
John Nguyen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Josh Kwiatkowski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1550
If they lose-18→ 1518
If they win+18→ 1518
If they lose-14→ 1486
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John NguyenJosh Kwiatkowski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Nguyen78%
Josh Kwiatkowski 22%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes John Nguyen a 78% favorite over Josh Kwiatkowski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
John Nguyen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1536 to 1500, a 36-point edge.
John Nguyen finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Josh Kwiatkowski 36%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.