Johnny Case vs Lucas Almeida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-1Record9-2-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
72,5"Reach74.5"
159 lbsWeight150 lbs
MMA LabTeamBrazilian TKO· 1643 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1628
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Johnny CaseLucas Almeida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Case65%
Lucas Almeida 35%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Case a 65% favorite over Lucas Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1639), separated by just 1 points.
Johnny Case finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Almeida 100%.
Lucas Almeida carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.