Combat Edge Intelligence

Johnny Eblen vs Khamzat Chimaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-1-0Record15-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'2"
74"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAllstars Training Center· 1677 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

Khamzat Chimaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Johnny Eblen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Johnny EblenNow 1812
If they win+17→ 1829
If they lose-15→ 1797
Khamzat ChimaevNow 1827
If they win+15→ 1842
If they lose-17→ 1810

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.01
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.98
TBD
Strike defense
52%
TBD
Takedown avg.
5.32
TBD
Takedown accuracy
58%
TBD
Takedown defense
88%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.37

Trajectory

Johnny EblenKhamzat Chimaev
18001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (39%)
KO/TKO
6 (40%)
2 (11%)
Submission
6 (40%)
9 (50%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Khamzat Chimaev52%
Johnny Eblen 48%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Khamzat Chimaev a 52% favorite over Johnny Eblen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Khamzat Chimaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1827 to 1812, a 15-point edge.

Johnny Eblen enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Johnny Eblen finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Khamzat Chimaev 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.