Combat Edge Intelligence

Johnny Walker vs Marcel Fortuna

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-10-0Record10-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'5"Height6'1"
82"Reach42,0"
206 lbsWeight205 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamRalph Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Johnny WalkerNow 1641
If they win+12→ 1653
If they lose-12→ 1629
Marcel FortunaNow 1642
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-16→ 1626

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1720 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.90
Sig. strikes / min
3.83
55%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.99
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.52
46%
Strike defense
65%
0.36
Takedown avg.
0.45
0%
Takedown accuracy
8%
57%
Takedown defense
75%
0.73
Submission avg.
0.45

Trajectory

Johnny WalkerMarcel Fortuna
16502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (77%)
KO/TKO
1 (10%)
3 (14%)
Submission
5 (50%)
2 (9%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Johnny Walker62%
Marcel Fortuna 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Walker a 62% favorite over Marcel Fortuna in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcel Fortuna's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1642), separated by just 1 points.

Johnny Walker finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Marcel Fortuna 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.