Johnny Walker vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record17-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height6'4"
82"Reach76"
206 lbsWeight185 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamScottish Hit Squad
What's at stake
Paul Craig is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Johnny Walker carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1654
If they lose-11→ 1630
If they win+11→ 1673
If they lose-13→ 1649
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1720 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Johnny WalkerPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Walker63%
Paul Craig 37%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Walker a 63% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Paul Craig's way (47%).
Paul Craig holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1662 to 1641, a 21-point edge.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Johnny Walker finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Johnny Walker and Paul Craig share 2 common opponents: Volkan Oezdemir and Jamahal Hill.
Johnny Walker carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.