Johnny Walker vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'2"
82"Reach 76"
206 lbsWeight241 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Johnny Walker carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1655
If they lose-10→ 1631
If they win+10→ 1704
If they lose-14→ 1680
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1720 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Johnny WalkerThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Walker61%
Thiago Santos 39%Elo baseline: 42%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Walker a 61% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thiago Santos's way (42%).
Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1641, a 53-point edge.
Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Johnny Walker finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Johnny Walker and Thiago Santos share 2 common opponents: Magomed Ankalaev and Jamahal Hill.
Johnny Walker carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.