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Combat Edge Intelligence

Joilton Lutterbach vs Nikolay Aleksakhin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

38-9-0Record26-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReach70"
185 lbsWeight172 lbs
Team PeregrinoTeamAlexander Nevsky (Stary Oskol)

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Joilton LutterbachNow 1704
If they win+12→ 1716
If they lose-12→ 1692
Nikolay AleksakhinNow 1701
If they win+12→ 1713
If they lose-12→ 1689

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Joilton LutterbachNikolay Aleksakhin
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (37%)
KO/TKO
14 (54%)
13 (34%)
Submission
2 (8%)
11 (29%)
Decision
10 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Nikolay Aleksakhin69%
Joilton Lutterbach 31%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nikolay Aleksakhin a 69% favorite over Joilton Lutterbach in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joilton Lutterbach's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1704 vs 1701), separated by just 3 points.

Joilton Lutterbach finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Nikolay Aleksakhin 62%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.