Combat Edge Intelligence

Joilton Lutterbach vs Nikolay Aleksakhin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

38-9-0Record26-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReach70"
185 lbsWeight172 lbs
Team PeregrinoTeamAlexander Nevsky (Stary Oskol)

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Joilton LutterbachNow 1702
If they win+12→ 1714
If they lose-12→ 1690
Nikolay AleksakhinNow 1700
If they win+12→ 1712
If they lose-12→ 1688

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Joilton LutterbachNikolay Aleksakhin
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (37%)
KO/TKO
14 (54%)
13 (34%)
Submission
2 (8%)
11 (29%)
Decision
10 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Nikolay Aleksakhin55%
Joilton Lutterbach 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nikolay Aleksakhin a 55% favorite over Joilton Lutterbach in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joilton Lutterbach's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1702 vs 1700), separated by just 2 points.

Joilton Lutterbach finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Nikolay Aleksakhin 62%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.