Jonathan Micallef vs Roan Carneiro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
10-1-0Record21-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
77"Reach74,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Combat 1 MMATeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1712
If they lose-16→ 1680
If they win+12→ 1712
If they lose-12→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1559 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jonathan MicallefRoan Carneiro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jonathan Micallef71%
Roan Carneiro 29%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Jonathan Micallef a 71% favorite over Roan Carneiro in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roan Carneiro's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1696 vs 1700), separated by just 4 points.
Jonathan Micallef enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jonathan Micallef finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Roan Carneiro 57%.
Jonathan Micallef carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.