Combat Edge Intelligence

Jonathan Micallef vs Stephen Thompson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-1-0Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
77"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Combat 1 MMATeamTeam Upstate Karate

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jonathan MicallefNow 1703
If they win+16→ 1719
If they lose-16→ 1687
Stephen ThompsonNow 1702
If they win+16→ 1718
If they lose-16→ 1686

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.96
Sig. strikes / min
4.11
41%
Strike accuracy
46%
4.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.02
56%
Strike defense
55%
1.13
Takedown avg.
0.25
67%
Takedown accuracy
42%
75%
Takedown defense
63%
1.13
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jonathan MicallefStephen Thompson
16001650170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (20%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
4 (40%)
Submission
1 (6%)
4 (40%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Jonathan Micallef70%
Stephen Thompson 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jonathan Micallef a 70% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1703 vs 1702), separated by just 1 points.

Jonathan Micallef enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jonathan Micallef finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.

Jonathan Micallef carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.