Combat Edge Intelligence

Jordan Espinosa vs Tim Elliott

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-10-0Record21-14-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
38,0"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Luttrell-Yee MMATeamNext Generation Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Tim Elliott is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jordan Espinosa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jordan EspinosaNow 1572
If they win+14→ 1586
If they lose-10→ 1562
Tim ElliottNow 1645
If they win+10→ 1655
If they lose-14→ 1631

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.22
Sig. strikes / min
3.51
53%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.94
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3
57%
Strike defense
56%
0.75
Takedown avg.
3.61
29%
Takedown accuracy
25%
71%
Takedown defense
59%
0.19
Submission avg.
1.06

Trajectory

Jordan EspinosaTim Elliott
160016502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (13%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
7 (47%)
Submission
8 (38%)
6 (40%)
Decision
10 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Tim Elliott72%
Jordan Espinosa 28%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Tim Elliott a 72% favorite over Jordan Espinosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Tim Elliott holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1645 to 1572, a 73-point edge.

Jordan Espinosa enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jordan Espinosa finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.