José Aldo vs Marlon Vera
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-10-0Record23-12-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"Reach 70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamTeam Oyama
What's at stake
José Aldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Marlon Vera carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1791
If they lose-14→ 1767
If they win+14→ 1724
If they lose-10→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1747 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
José AldoMarlon Vera
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
José Aldo53%
Marlon Vera 47%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes José Aldo a 53% favorite over Marlon Vera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
José Aldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1781 to 1710, a 71-point edge.
José Aldo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
José Aldo finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Marlon Vera 78%.
José Aldo and Marlon Vera share 3 common opponents: Aiemann Zahabi, Rob Font and Pedro Munhoz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.