José Medina vs Mikhail Dolgov
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Mikhail Dolgov54%
José Medina 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mikhail Dolgov a 54% favorite over José Medina in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans José Medina's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1537 vs 1536), separated by just 1 points.
José Medina enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Mikhail Dolgov enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
José Medina finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Mikhail Dolgov 45%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-7-0Record11-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'1"
74″Reach-
185 lbsWeight187 lbs
Phuket Fight Club· 1574 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamEvolve Gym· 1546 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1553
If they lose-16→ 1521
If they win+16→ 1552
If they lose-16→ 1520
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
José MedinaMikhail Dolgov