Combat Edge Intelligence

Joseph Benavidez vs Tim Elliott

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-8-0Record21-14-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'7"
TBDReach66"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamNext Generation Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Joseph Benavidez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Tim Elliott carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Joseph BenavidezNow 1783
If they win+7→ 1790
If they lose-17→ 1766
Tim ElliottNow 1645
If they win+17→ 1662
If they lose-7→ 1638

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.52
Sig. strikes / min
3.51
35%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3
61%
Strike defense
56%
1.41
Takedown avg.
3.61
31%
Takedown accuracy
25%
62%
Takedown defense
59%
0.59
Submission avg.
1.06

Trajectory

Joseph BenavidezTim Elliott
16001700180020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (29%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
9 (32%)
Submission
8 (38%)
11 (39%)
Decision
10 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Joseph Benavidez61%
Tim Elliott 39%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Joseph Benavidez a 61% favorite over Tim Elliott in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Joseph Benavidez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1783 to 1645, a 138-point edge.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Joseph Benavidez finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.