Josh Culibao vs Lerone Murphy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-1Record17-1-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
73"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Igor MMATeamManchester Top Team
What's at stake
Lerone Murphy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Josh Culibao carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1661
If they lose-9→ 1629
If they win+9→ 1800
If they lose-23→ 1768
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1703 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh CulibaoLerone Murphy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lerone Murphy90%
Josh Culibao 10%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Lerone Murphy a 90% favorite over Josh Culibao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Lerone Murphy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1791 to 1638, a 153-point edge.
Josh Culibao enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Josh Culibao finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Lerone Murphy 47%.
Josh Culibao and Lerone Murphy share 1 common opponent: Ricardo Ramos.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.