Combat Edge Intelligence

Josh Emmett vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-7-0Record24-20-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'10"
70"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Josh Emmett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Josh EmmettNow 1712
If they win+9→ 1721
If they lose-15→ 1697
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+15→ 1628
If they lose-9→ 1604

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1753 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.72
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
36%
Strike accuracy
40%
4.43
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
60%
Strike defense
59%
1.08
Takedown avg.
0.58
38%
Takedown accuracy
39%
44%
Takedown defense
81%
0.07
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Josh EmmettMichael Johnson
1600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (37%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
2 (11%)
Submission
2 (8%)
10 (53%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Emmett66%
Michael Johnson 34%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Emmett a 66% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Josh Emmett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1712 to 1613, a 99-point edge.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Josh Emmett finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Michael Johnson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.