Combat Edge Intelligence

Josh Kwiatkowski vs Lorenzo de Nigris

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-9-0Record2-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'7"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Animo Boxing & MMATeamLigorio Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Josh KwiatkowskiNow 1500
If they win+16→ 1516
If they lose-16→ 1484
Lorenzo de NigrisNow 1501
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1492 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
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Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Josh KwiatkowskiLorenzo de Nigris
15001550202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (100%)
7 (64%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Lorenzo de Nigris53%
Josh Kwiatkowski 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lorenzo de Nigris a 53% favorite over Josh Kwiatkowski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1500 vs 1501), separated by just 1 points.

Josh Kwiatkowski finishes 36% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.