Combat Edge Intelligence

Josh Thomson vs Thiago Moisés

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-9-0Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReach70"
153 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Josh ThomsonNow 1684
If they win+12→ 1696
If they lose-12→ 1672
Thiago MoisésNow 1683
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1671 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.59
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
48%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.12
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.08
64%
Strike defense
53%
1.92
Takedown avg.
1.31
40%
Takedown accuracy
36%
55%
Takedown defense
53%
1.34
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Josh ThomsonThiago Moisés
1700201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (32%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
9 (41%)
Submission
8 (42%)
6 (27%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Thiago Moisés66%
Josh Thomson 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Moisés a 66% favorite over Josh Thomson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Thomson's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1684 vs 1683), separated by just 1 points.

Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Josh Thomson finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.