Joshua Pacio vs Tatsumitsu Wada
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Joshua Pacio76%
Tatsumitsu Wada 24%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Joshua Pacio a 76% favorite over Tatsumitsu Wada in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Joshua Pacio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1724 to 1645, a 79-point edge.
Joshua Pacio finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Tatsumitsu Wada 38%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
24-5-0Record26-14-2
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'7"
-Reach69.3"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Lakay La Trinidad GymTeamFreelance· 1571 avg Elo · 12 rated
What's at stake
Joshua Pacio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tatsumitsu Wada carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1733
If they lose-15→ 1709
If they win+15→ 1660
If they lose-9→ 1636
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joshua PacioTatsumitsu Wada