João Pedro Saldanha vs Shosuke Kinoshita
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
João Pedro Saldanha56%
Shosuke Kinoshita 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes João Pedro Saldanha a 56% favorite over Shosuke Kinoshita in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1571 vs 1570), separated by just 1 points.
João Pedro Saldanha finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Shosuke Kinoshita 23%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record13-7-1
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'5"Height5'9"
69"Reach-
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1587
If they lose-16→ 1555
If they win+16→ 1586
If they lose-16→ 1554
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
João Pedro SaldanhaShosuke Kinoshita