Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record16-10-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'3"
63"Reach 64"
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
CWB FighterTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Julia Polastri is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Karolina Kowalkiewicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1681
If they lose-18→ 1649
If they win+13→ 1644
If they lose-11→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Julia PolastriKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julia Polastri61%
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 39%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Julia Polastri a 61% favorite over Karolina Kowalkiewicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Julia Polastri holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1667 to 1631, a 36-point edge.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Julia Polastri finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.