Julian Erosa vs Nate Landwehr
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-13-0Record18-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'1"Height5'9"
74"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
Julian Erosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nate Landwehr carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1705
If they lose-14→ 1681
If they win+18→ 1666
If they lose-14→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Julian ErosaNate Landwehr
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julian Erosa64%
Nate Landwehr 36%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Julian Erosa a 64% favorite over Nate Landwehr in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Julian Erosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1648, a 47-point edge.
Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nate Landwehr enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Julian Erosa finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Nate Landwehr 61%.
Julian Erosa and Nate Landwehr share 1 common opponent: Darren Elkins.
Julian Erosa carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.