Julian Erosa vs Nik Bagley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-13-0Record10-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'1"Height5'8"
74"Reach-
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamGreat Britain Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1707
If they lose-12→ 1683
If they win+16→ 1710
If they lose-16→ 1678
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1539 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Julian ErosaNik Bagley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nik Bagley76%
Julian Erosa 24%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Nik Bagley a 76% favorite over Julian Erosa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Julian Erosa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1695 vs 1694), separated by just 1 points.
Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nik Bagley enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Julian Erosa finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Nik Bagley 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.