Julio Cesar Chaves vs Michael Lerma
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-8-0Record0-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Cobra Thai TeamTeamIronhorse Boxing Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1492
If they lose-16→ 1460
If they win+24→ 1497
If they lose-24→ 1449
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1487 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Julio Cesar ChavesMichael Lerma
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julio Cesar Chaves52%
Michael Lerma 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Julio Cesar Chaves a 52% favorite over Michael Lerma in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1476 vs 1473), separated by just 3 points.
Julio Cesar Chaves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Julio Cesar Chaves finishes 56% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.