Justin Gaethje vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-5-0Record29-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamFightspirit Team
What's at stake
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Justin Gaethje carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1882
If they lose-11→ 1858
If they win+11→ 1901
If they lose-13→ 1877
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1808 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin GaethjeKhabib Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje62%
Khabib Nurmagomedov 38%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 62% favorite over Khabib Nurmagomedov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Khabib Nurmagomedov's way (47%).
Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1869, a 21-point edge.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Justin Gaethje finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Khabib Nurmagomedov 66%.
Justin Gaethje and Khabib Nurmagomedov share 1 common opponent: Dustin Poirier.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.