Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-5-0Record28-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
70"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Max Holloway carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1880
If they lose-13→ 1856
If they win+13→ 1843
If they lose-11→ 1819
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1808 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin GaethjeMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje60%
Max Holloway 40%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 60% favorite over Max Holloway in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1830, a 39-point edge.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Justin Gaethje finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.
Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway share 3 common opponents: Ilia Topuria, Dustin Poirier and Charles Oliveira.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.