Justin Gaethje vs Michael Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-5-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
70"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+4→ 1873
If they lose-20→ 1849
If they win+20→ 1632
If they lose-4→ 1608
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1808 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Justin GaethjeMichael Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje79%
Michael Johnson 21%Elo baseline: 81%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 79% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1612, a 257-point edge.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Justin Gaethje finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.
Michael Johnson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.