Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-5-0Record14-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
70"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamTiger Muay Thai

What's at stake

Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Rafael Fiziev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Justin GaethjeNow 1869
If they win+7→ 1876
If they lose-17→ 1852
Rafael FizievNow 1731
If they win+22→ 1753
If they lose-10→ 1721

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1808 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1745 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.48
Sig. strikes / min
4.71
59%
Strike accuracy
53%
7.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.84
51%
Strike defense
50%
0.33
Takedown avg.
0.83
40%
Takedown accuracy
67%
74%
Takedown defense
90%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Justin GaethjeRafael Fiziev
1700175018001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

21 (75%)
KO/TKO
9 (64%)
1 (4%)
Submission
1 (7%)
6 (21%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Gaethje63%
Rafael Fiziev 37%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 63% favorite over Rafael Fiziev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1731, a 138-point edge.

Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Justin Gaethje finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Fiziev 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.