Justin Gaethje vs Usman Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-5-0Record22-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Usman Nurmagomedov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1880
If they lose-13→ 1856
If they win+17→ 1864
If they lose-15→ 1832
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1808 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin GaethjeUsman Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Usman Nurmagomedov60%
Justin Gaethje 40%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Usman Nurmagomedov a 60% favorite over Justin Gaethje in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Gaethje's way (47%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1847, a 22-point edge.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Usman Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Justin Gaethje finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Usman Nurmagomedov 73%.
Usman Nurmagomedov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.