Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Scoggins vs Richie Vaculik

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-7-0Record10-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'6"
66,0"Reach41,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Revolution Mixed Martial ArtsTeamTP Fight Team

What's at stake

Justin Scoggins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Richie Vaculik carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Justin ScogginsNow 1619
If they win+14→ 1633
If they lose-18→ 1601
Richie VaculikNow 1577
If they win+18→ 1595
If they lose-14→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1575 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.56
Sig. strikes / min
3.69
52%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.16
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.09
56%
Strike defense
57%
3.42
Takedown avg.
3
64%
Takedown accuracy
45%
83%
Takedown defense
32%
0.45
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Justin ScogginsRichie Vaculik
160016502015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
2 (13%)
Submission
6 (60%)
6 (40%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Scoggins70%
Richie Vaculik 30%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Scoggins a 70% favorite over Richie Vaculik in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Justin Scoggins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1619 to 1577, a 42-point edge.

Richie Vaculik enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Justin Scoggins finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Richie Vaculik 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.