Kacper Cholewa vs Niklas Stolze
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Niklas Stolze59%
Kacper Cholewa 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Niklas Stolze a 59% favorite over Kacper Cholewa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kacper Cholewa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1536 vs 1535), separated by just 1 points.
Niklas Stolze enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kacper Cholewa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Niklas Stolze 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record14-10-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
-Reach74"
155 lbsWeight171 lbs
Sportowe PulawyTeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1560
If they lose-24→ 1512
If they win+16→ 1551
If they lose-16→ 1519
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1522 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kacper CholewaNiklas Stolze