Kacper Wróbel vs Paul Marghitas
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Kacper Wróbel54%
Paul Marghitas 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kacper Wróbel a 54% favorite over Paul Marghitas in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Paul Marghitas's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1543 vs 1544), separated by just 1 points.
Paul Marghitas enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kacper Wróbel finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
3-1-0Record2-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
WCA WarszawaTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1567
If they lose-24→ 1519
If they win+24→ 1568
If they lose-24→ 1520
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1486 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kacper WróbelPaul Marghitas