Kafiz Sakibekov vs Yanal Ashmouz
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Kafiz Sakibekov63%
Yanal Ashmouz 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kafiz Sakibekov a 63% favorite over Yanal Ashmouz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Yanal Ashmouz's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1634 vs 1636), separated by just 2 points.
Kafiz Sakibekov finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Yanal Ashmouz 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record8-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
-Reach68"
147 lbsWeight155 lbs
Brave Fight GymTeamK Dojo Warrior Tribe· 1639 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1650
If they lose-16→ 1618
If they win+24→ 1660
If they lose-24→ 1612
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1582 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kafiz SakibekovYanal Ashmouz