Combat Edge Intelligence

Kai Asakura vs Tim Elliott

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-6-0Record21-14-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
69"Reach66"
134 lbsWeight135 lbs
Japan Top Team· 1639 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamNext Generation Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Kai Asakura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tim Elliott carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kai AsakuraNow 1719
If they win+9→ 1728
If they lose-15→ 1704
Tim ElliottNow 1645
If they win+15→ 1660
If they lose-9→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1615 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.51
33%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3
52%
Strike defense
56%
0
Takedown avg.
3.61
TBD
Takedown accuracy
25%
50%
Takedown defense
59%
0
Submission avg.
1.06

Trajectory

Kai AsakuraTim Elliott
1600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (64%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
3 (14%)
Submission
8 (38%)
5 (23%)
Decision
10 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Kai Asakura71%
Tim Elliott 29%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Kai Asakura a 71% favorite over Tim Elliott in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Kai Asakura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1645, a 74-point edge.

Kai Asakura finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 52%.

Kai Asakura carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.