Kai Kara-France vs Raulian Paiva
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-12-0Record23-6-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'8"
69″Reach69"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
City KickboxingTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
Kai Kara-France is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Raulian Paiva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1690
If they lose-13→ 1666
If they win+17→ 1665
If they lose-15→ 1633
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1711 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kai Kara-FranceRaulian Paiva
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kai Kara-France59%
Raulian Paiva 41%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Kai Kara-France a 59% favorite over Raulian Paiva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Kai Kara-France holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1679 to 1648, a 31-point edge.
Kai Kara-France finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Raulian Paiva 30%.
Kai Kara-France and Raulian Paiva share 1 common opponent: Rogério Bontorin.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.