Kaik Brito vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-6-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74"Reach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Black Thai TeamTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1737
If they lose-12→ 1713
If they win+12→ 1737
If they lose-12→ 1713
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1628 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1729 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kaik BritoRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rory MacDonald61%
Kaik Brito 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 61% favorite over Kaik Brito in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kaik Brito's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1725 vs 1725), separated by just 0 points.
Kaik Brito enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kaik Brito finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
Rory MacDonald carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.