Kaito Oda vs Kohei Sugiyama
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record16-10-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
126 lbsWeight126 lbs
Carpe Diem FukuokaTeamThe Blackbelt Japan· 1640 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Kaito Oda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Kohei Sugiyama carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1631
If they lose-17→ 1599
If they win+13→ 1602
If they lose-11→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kaito OdaKohei Sugiyama
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kaito Oda63%
Kohei Sugiyama 37%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Kaito Oda a 63% favorite over Kohei Sugiyama in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Kaito Oda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1616 to 1589, a 27-point edge.
Kohei Sugiyama enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Kaito Oda finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Kohei Sugiyama 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.