Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Melissa Amaya
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-0Record8-1-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'3"Height5'4"
64"Reach64"
116 lbsWeight116 lbs
American Top TeamTeamSikjitsu· 1660 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1643
If they lose-12→ 1619
If they win+24→ 1658
If they lose-24→ 1610
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1627 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Karolina KowalkiewiczMelissa Amaya
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karolina Kowalkiewicz51%
Melissa Amaya 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Karolina Kowalkiewicz a 51% favorite over Melissa Amaya in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Melissa Amaya's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1631 vs 1634), separated by just 3 points.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz finishes 25% of wins inside the distance, Melissa Amaya 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.