Combat Edge Intelligence

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Xiaonan Yan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-10-0Record19-5-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'3"Height5'5"
64"Reach63"
116 lbsWeight115 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

Xiaonan Yan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Karolina Kowalkiewicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Karolina KowalkiewiczNow 1631
If they win+15→ 1646
If they lose-9→ 1622
Xiaonan YanNow 1734
If they win+11→ 1745
If they lose-21→ 1713

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1627 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1698 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.54
Sig. strikes / min
4.69
43%
Strike accuracy
45%
5.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.23
58%
Strike defense
60%
0.31
Takedown avg.
0.84
23%
Takedown accuracy
0%
75%
Takedown defense
65%
0.19
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Karolina KowalkiewiczXiaonan Yan
165017001750202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (6%)
KO/TKO
8 (42%)
3 (19%)
Submission
1 (5%)
12 (75%)
Decision
10 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

Xiaonan Yan78%
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 22%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Xiaonan Yan a 78% favorite over Karolina Kowalkiewicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Xiaonan Yan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1734 to 1631, a 103-point edge.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz finishes 25% of wins inside the distance, Xiaonan Yan 47%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.