Katlyn Cerminara vs Lauren Murphy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-0Record16-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'7"
TBDReach67"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team Renzo GracieTeamGracie Barra Katy
What's at stake
Katlyn Cerminara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Lauren Murphy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1723
If they lose-14→ 1699
If they win+19→ 1671
If they lose-13→ 1639
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Katlyn CerminaraLauren Murphy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Katlyn Cerminara78%
Lauren Murphy 22%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Katlyn Cerminara a 78% favorite over Lauren Murphy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Katlyn Cerminara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1652, a 61-point edge.
Katlyn Cerminara enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lauren Murphy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Katlyn Cerminara finishes 17% of wins inside the distance, Lauren Murphy 56%.
Katlyn Cerminara and Lauren Murphy share 2 common opponents: Jéssica Andrade and Valentina Shevchenko.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.