Combat Edge Intelligence

Katlyn Cerminara vs Mara Romero Borella

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-0Record12-9-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'6"
TBDReach38,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team Renzo GracieTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Katlyn Cerminara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Mara Romero Borella carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Katlyn CerminaraNow 1713
If they win+6→ 1719
If they lose-18→ 1695
Mara Romero BorellaNow 1531
If they win+24→ 1555
If they lose-8→ 1523

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.58
Sig. strikes / min
2.54
35%
Strike accuracy
38%
4.48
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.48
62%
Strike defense
71%
0.31
Takedown avg.
1.83
16%
Takedown accuracy
44%
50%
Takedown defense
67%
0.31
Submission avg.
0.23

Trajectory

Katlyn CerminaraMara Romero Borella
160017002018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

2 (11%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
1 (6%)
Submission
4 (33%)
15 (83%)
Decision
5 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Katlyn Cerminara83%
Mara Romero Borella 17%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Katlyn Cerminara a 83% favorite over Mara Romero Borella in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Katlyn Cerminara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1531, a 182-point edge.

Katlyn Cerminara enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mara Romero Borella enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Katlyn Cerminara finishes 17% of wins inside the distance, Mara Romero Borella 58%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.