Keito Yamakita vs Lucas Rocha
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-1-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'1"Height5'2"
65"Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Reversal Gym Shinjuku Me, We· 1636 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamRenovacao Coari Team· 1671 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1713
If they lose-16→ 1681
If they win+16→ 1712
If they lose-16→ 1680
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Keito YamakitaLucas Rocha
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Rocha53%
Keito Yamakita 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Rocha a 53% favorite over Keito Yamakita in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Keito Yamakita's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1697 vs 1696), separated by just 1 points.
Keito Yamakita enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Keito Yamakita finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Rocha 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.