Combat Edge Intelligence

Kelvin Gastelum vs Michael Bisping

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-11-0Record30-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'2"
71"Reach75″
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamHB Ultimate

What's at stake

Michael Bisping is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+14→ 1707
If they lose-10→ 1683
Michael BispingNow 1741
If they win+10→ 1751
If they lose-14→ 1727

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1748 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
4.33
42%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.71
57%
Strike defense
65%
1.01
Takedown avg.
1.05
34%
Takedown accuracy
43%
60%
Takedown defense
63%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.32

Trajectory

Kelvin GastelumMichael Bisping
1700175020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (30%)
KO/TKO
18 (60%)
5 (25%)
Submission
2 (7%)
9 (45%)
Decision
10 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Kelvin Gastelum63%
Michael Bisping 37%Elo baseline: 43%

The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 63% favorite over Michael Bisping in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Michael Bisping's way (43%).

Michael Bisping holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1693, a 48-point edge.

Michael Bisping enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Michael Bisping 67%.

Michael Bisping carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.