Combat Edge Intelligence

Kelvin Gastelum vs Michel Pereira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-11-0Record32-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
71"Reach73"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamOvercome Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681
Michel PereiraNow 1692
If they win+12→ 1704
If they lose-12→ 1680

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
4.46
42%
Strike accuracy
52%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.40
57%
Strike defense
51%
1.01
Takedown avg.
1.21
34%
Takedown accuracy
57%
60%
Takedown defense
76%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Kelvin GastelumMichel Pereira
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (30%)
KO/TKO
11 (34%)
5 (25%)
Submission
9 (28%)
9 (45%)
Decision
12 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Kelvin Gastelum and Michel Pereira within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1692), separated by just 1 points.

Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Michel Pereira 63%.

Michel Pereira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.