Combat Edge Intelligence

Kelvin Gastelum vs Nico Musoke

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-11-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
71"Reach75.00
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamAllstars Training Center

What's at stake

Kelvin Gastelum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Nico Musoke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+8→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1677
Nico MusokeNow 1561
If they win+22→ 1583
If they lose-10→ 1551

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1607 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
3.56
42%
Strike accuracy
36%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.80
57%
Strike defense
58%
1.01
Takedown avg.
1.16
34%
Takedown accuracy
19%
60%
Takedown defense
82%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Kelvin GastelumNico Musoke
15001550160016501700201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (30%)
KO/TKO
4 (25%)
5 (25%)
Submission
5 (31%)
9 (45%)
Decision
7 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Kelvin Gastelum79%
Nico Musoke 21%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 79% favorite over Nico Musoke in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Kelvin Gastelum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1561, a 132-point edge.

Nico Musoke enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Nico Musoke 56%.

Nico Musoke carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.