Kelvin Gastelum vs Ronaldo Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record26-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
71"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamFusion X-Cel Performance
What's at stake
Ronaldo Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1707
If they lose-10→ 1683
If they win+10→ 1759
If they lose-14→ 1735
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kelvin GastelumRonaldo Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kelvin Gastelum60%
Ronaldo Souza 40%Elo baseline: 42%
The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 60% favorite over Ronaldo Souza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ronaldo Souza's way (42%).
Ronaldo Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1693, a 56-point edge.
Ronaldo Souza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Ronaldo Souza 85%.
Kelvin Gastelum and Ronaldo Souza share 2 common opponents: Robert Whittaker and Jack Hermansson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.