Kelvin Gastelum vs Ryan Gandra
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record10-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
71"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight184 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamFlavio Baiano Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681
If they win+16→ 1711
If they lose-16→ 1679
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kelvin GastelumRyan Gandra
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Gandra60%
Kelvin Gastelum 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Gandra a 60% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1695), separated by just 2 points.
Ryan Gandra enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Gandra 80%.
Ryan Gandra carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.