Combat Edge Intelligence

Kelvin Gastelum vs Sean Brady

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-11-0Record19-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
71"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamRenzo Gracie Philly· 1735 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

Sean Brady is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+16→ 1709
If they lose-8→ 1685
Sean BradyNow 1807
If they win+11→ 1818
If they lose-21→ 1786

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.65
Sig. strikes / min
4.08
42%
Strike accuracy
53%
3.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.77
57%
Strike defense
60%
1.04
Takedown avg.
3.58
13%
Takedown accuracy
3%
60%
Takedown defense
87%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.82

Trajectory

Kelvin GastelumSean Brady
170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (30%)
KO/TKO
3 (16%)
5 (25%)
Submission
6 (32%)
9 (45%)
Decision
10 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

Sean Brady76%
Kelvin Gastelum 24%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Sean Brady a 76% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Sean Brady holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1693, a 114-point edge.

Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Sean Brady 47%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.